Sagarin
An independent college-football power rating.
THE MODEL · VERSION 1.0
How the forecast reaches a win probability
The stated process starts with independent ratings, adds researched game context, then considers the result alongside Kalshi Yes and No prices.
Current model version 1.0View the model changelog
01 / INDEPENDENT STARTING POINTS
Begin with three outside ratings.
The described forecast starts from Sagarin, ESPN FPI, and 247Sports talent ratings. These independent views provide the starting point for a matchup.
02 / RESEARCHED CONTEXT
Add what the ratings may not capture.
The stated approach adds researched factors such as quarterback status, injuries, and line movement. Together with the starting ratings, these inputs are combined into a win probability.
- Quarterback status
- Injuries
- Line movement
03 / MARKET COMPARISON
Give the market more influence when research confidence is low.
The stated method compares its win probability with Kalshi Yes and No prices. When confidence in the supporting research is low, the estimate is shrunk toward those market prices. No specific weights or shrinkage formula are published here.
What this app can verify
The app stores an owner-entered model view and owner-entered Yes and No prices. Its source does not calculate the ratings, research-confidence adjustment, or win probability, and it does not fetch live prices. The description here states the intended approach; its exact inputs, weights, confidence scale, and formula are not available to reproduce or independently verify from this app.
A CLEAR BOUNDARY
What this is not
- Not financial advice.
- Not affiliated with Kalshi.
- Not a guarantee of any outcome.
Current model version 1.0.
Read the dated changelog